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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.