🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still