Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.